Aurora Cannabis Is Going to $0 — and for 3 Good Reasons, Says Analyst

Once upon a time (way back in early 2019), Aurora Cannabis (ACB) was a dominant force in Canadian cannabis. Boasting a massive "cultivation footprint" -- hundreds of thousands of square feet of growing space producing hundreds of tons of weed per year -- Aurora controlled 20% of the mass market Canadian cannabis. And yet, Aurora could not seem to turn a profit. It lost $224 million in fiscal 2019 and then $2.4 billion in fiscal 2020.Hoping to stem the tide of these losses Aurora began focusing its efforts on selling premium marijuana blends at higher profit margins. That obviously didn't work, so in 2019 it shifted its strategy back to targeting the "value segment" -- the mass market -- which also didn't work. So lately, Aurora has begun refocusing yet again on premium blends.And how is that working out? Here's a clue: In the first quarter of its fiscal 2021 (reported last week), Aurora suffered: * a 10% decline in quarterly sales to $51 million * a net loss of $81 million * and $93 million in negative free cash flow.Sound like it might be time for another business model reset? According to GLJ Research analyst Gordon Johnson, that's exactly what's likely to happen at Aurora Cannabis. Johnson observes that when calculated in Canadian dollars, Aurora's fiscal Q1 2021 revenues of C$67.8 million actually exceeded analyst expectations for C$63.9 million. However, the company suffered an "acute bottom line-miss" when it reported losing C$0.93 -- more than twice the C$0.46 that analysts had expected it to lose. Cash burn also accelerated -- up nearly 50% sequentially to C$124.3 million.Despite this massively bad quarter, Johnson notes that the apparent electoral victory of Joe Biden as U.S. President-elect has investors betting on U.S. marijuana legalization to turn around the fortunes of the marijuana industry. So far, the month of November alone has sent Aurora Cannabis stock up nearly 73%, and in Johnson's view, there's just one way to play this marijuana stock rally:Sell. Or even, sell short \-- because this stock is going to $0, says Johnson. (To watch Johnson's track record, click here)There are at least three good reasons to follow this advice, according to the analyst. The first, obviously, is that Aurora Cannabis can't quite seem to figure out what it wants to be when it grows up -- but whatever that is, it's almost certain to be a company that loses money hand over fist. One reason for this is that the oversupply of mass market marijuana, it seems, has "recently shift[ed] to the premium segment where everyone is now focused, [such that] the high-end space [that Aurora once again favors] now has a problem," too.Even worse for all marijuana investors, though -- not just Aurora Cannabis -- Johnson thinks they're entirely misreading the legislative situation surrounding cannabis. For one thing, "US Federal nationalization" ([sic] -- pretty sure he means "legalization") -- is "highly unlikely" even under a President Biden, with the U.S. Senate still firmly in Republican hands.And second, even...


Analysts Say These 3 Stocks Are Their Top Picks for 2021

The year is winding down, and it’s time for Wall Street’s analysts to start flagging their top picks for the coming year. It’s a time-honored tradition, in most walks of life, to take a sometimes tongue-in-cheek look at what lies ahead, and to start giving advice on the say-so of a metaphorical crystal ball.Analysts have been analyzing each stock carefully, looking at its past and current performance, its trends on a variety of time frames, management’s plans – the analysts take everything into account. Their recommendations provide valuable direction for building a resilient portfolio in the new year.As normal, TipRanks has collected and collated the data on the top picks, and made it available for investors’ use. The stock choices, and their data, make for some interesting choices. Let’s take a closer look. UTZ Brands (UTZ)UTZ Brands is a familiar label in the eastern US. The company is known for its range of snack foods, of the salty variety rather than sweet. The company’s line of foods, including pretzels, potato chips, snack mixes, and popcorn, are frequent choices in vending machines. In August, UTZ (then known as Utz Quality Foods) has completed a business combination agreement with Collier Creek, a special purpose acquisition company. The combination brought the venerable snack company into the public trading domain. More recently, UTZ posted strong Q3 results and reported that it has entered an agreement to buy competing snack company Truco. The quarterly results were released first, on November 5, showing $248 million in net sales, a year-over-year gain of 24%, along with a 23% yoy gain in gross profit. One week later, UTZ and Truco announced a $480 million acquisition agreement, which will bring the ‘On the Border’ brand of tortilla chips and salsas into UTZ product line.Covering this stock for Oppenheimer is 5-star analyst Rupesh Parikh, who sees a clear path forward for the company. “[Following] the company’s announcement on 11/12 to acquire Truco Enterprises, [we] overall look very favorably upon the deal economics, synergy opportunity, leverage to the attractive tortilla category including ancillary products (salsa and queso), and compelling growth prospects for the brand,” Parikh opined. “We believe the company is well positioned to drive at least 3-4% organic sales growth and 6-8% EBITDA growth with upside optionality from strategic acquisitions,” the analyst concluded. To this end, UTZ remains Parikh’s top small-cap food pick. The analyst rates the stock an Outperform (i.e. Buy) along with a $24 price target. This figure implies a 28% upside from current levels. (To watch Parikh’s track record, click here)Overall, Wall Street loves this stock, earning a stellar analyst consensus rating — Strong Buy. Out of 7 analysts tracked by TipRanks in the last 3 months, 6 are bullish on UTZ, while only one remains sidelined. With a return potential of ~16%, the stock’s consensus target price stands at $21.71. (See UTZ stock analysis on TipRanks)RingCentral, Inc. (RNG)From salty snacks we move on to telecom tech. RingCentral is a cloud-based business communications company. The company’s products are software platform packages that combine telephone and computer systems. The flagship product platform, RingCentral Office, allows compatibility of the communications system with other popular business apps including DropBox, Google Docs, Outlook, and Salesforce. RNG also offers unique features necessary for communications systems: call forwarding, phone extensions, vid calling, and screen sharing.Much of the modern business world is about problem solving, and RingCentral does just that for its customers – and the results are clear in the revenues and stock performance. The top line number has been increasing through 2020, with the Q3 revenues coming in at $303 million for a 9.3% sequential gain. The shares recovered easily from the mid-winter COVID swoon, and the stock is trading up 76% so far this year.On the negative side, RingCentral operates at a net loss, and that net loss has been deepening even as revenues rose and the stock appreciated. The Q3 EPS loss came in at 24 cents.James Fish, 5-star analyst with Piper Sandler, wrote the review on RNG, and he is upbeat about the company’s future. “RingCentral is winning new customers and expanding with existing given its ability to converge across the communication software stack, including with contact center… we continue to recommend RingCentral as one of our ‘core 4’ in our coverage and a name to own for the next few years,” Fish commented. As a result, Fish reiterates RNG as his Top Pick. The analyst rates the stock an Overweight (i.e. Buy) alongside a $362 price target. At current levels, that indicates a possible 21% upside for the coming year. (To watch Fish’s track record, click here)Overall, RingCentral has 10 recent reviews, including 9 Buys and 1 Hold, making the analyst consensus view a Strong Buy. The average price target is $337.22, which suggests a 13% upside from the current trading price of $297.79. (See RNG stock analysis on TipRanks)DraftKings, Inc. (DKNG)The world of fantasy sports helps bring fans into the games, and now that the pro leagues have resumed play – albeit for abbreviated seasons, in deference to the coronavirus – DraftKings, which take fantasy leagues online, has been making gains. In addition to fantasy league creation, DraftKings offers sports betting, and the company’s online model has fit in well with the social distance restrictions put in place to combat the ongoing virus health crisis.In the third quarter, whose results were reported earlier this month, DraftKings had plenty of good news. Revenue, at $133 million, beat the forecast by $1 million, and the net loss per share was not as deep as analysts had feared. The company reported a key metric – monthly unique players – surpassing 1 million, an important milestone. Looking ahead, DraftKings revised its fiscal 2020 guidance upward, by 5.7% at the midpoint of the range, to $540 million to $560 million. The midpoint for 2021 revenue expectations is even more bullish, at $800 million.As noted, these gains come as the major sports leagues have returned to play. But that is not the only key here. DraftKings operates in 19 states plus DC – the jurisdictions which permit legal online sports betting. But an additional 8 states are in various stages of legalizing DraftKings’ niche, and the company looks forward to expanding its operations.Summing up the prospects for DraftKings, Rosenblatt analyst Bernie McTernan writes, “[DKNG] remains a top pick in our Consumer Tech coverage. 3Q results will continue the positive revenue estimate revisions given the better than expected guide for ’20E and ’21E. We are at the high end of the ’21E range which we believe is achievable given our expectation for at least MI and VA coming online.”The analyst added, “New state launches will pressure near-term adj. EBITDA but encouragingly the company indicates NJ, their most mature market, is in a similar spot where they had previously hoped it would be for its ramp in profitability.”McTernan rates DKNG a Buy, and his $65 price target implies a robust 41% one-year upside. (To watch McTernan’s track record, click here)All in all, there 19 reviews on record for DraftKings, including 13 Buys and 6 Holds, giving the stock a Moderate Buy rating from the analyst consensus. The shares are currently priced at $46.24 and have an average price target of $59, making the upside potential for the year ahead 38%. (See DKNG stock analysis on TipRanks)To find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analysts. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.

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