This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
Tensions are running high in Madrid as the latest round of US-China talks veer off-script. What was supposed to be a technical wrap-up on TikTok’s future has spiraled into a broader clash over trade, tech, and geopolitical leverage. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a resolution on TikTok is very close, but flagged aggressive asks from the Chinese siderequests the US isn’t keen to link to trade talks. USTR Jamieson Greer confirmed there’s still no path forward on broader economic issues. Meanwhile, the clock is ticking: President Trump has warned that if ByteDance doesn’t offload TikTok’s US arm to an approved buyer, the app could go dark as early as this week.
Just as negotiations opened, Beijing pushed backhard. Chinese regulators declared Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) in violation of anti-monopoly laws, a move widely viewed as retaliatory. The government also urged firms to avoid Nvidia’s H20 chips and launched fresh probes into US semiconductor players, underscoring rising tech-sector tensions. This comes on the heels of Washington adding 23 Chinese firms to its national-security blacklist. While China’s economy is softeningAugust data showed slowing manufacturing and consumptionBeijing is still tracking toward a $1.2 trillion trade surplus in 2025, thanks in part to rerouted exports outside the US orbit.
The backdrop? A 90-day tariff pause between Washington and Beijing expires mid-November. Trump, fresh from reentering the White House, is pressing NATO allies to hike tariffs on China up to 100% for Russian oil purchases, adding another geopolitical layer to the mix. With rare earths still in Beijing’s grip and a potential Trump-Xi meeting being scoped for an upcoming South Korea summit, investors now face a fragmented but fast-evolving chessboard. The TikTok divestiture may grab headlines, but the real story is structural decouplingand it’s gathering momentum.
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