This AI juggernaut sports an impressive moat, but its sky-high valuation raises questions.
Nvidia (NVDA 4.55%) has emerged as a pivotal player in the technology sector. For nearly a decade, the company has led the graphics processing unit (GPU) market, a position that has become increasingly valuable with the rise of artificial intelligence (AI). Nvidia’s stock performance reflects this success, with an astonishing 28,200% return over this period.
However, Nvidia’s rapid ascent has not been without controversy. As the company’s market capitalization has swelled, some analysts have drawn parallels to the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s. This comparison raises important questions for investors: Is Nvidia’s growth sustainable, or are we witnessing a case of irrational exuberance in the tech sector?
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To answer these questions, we need to examine Nvidia’s technological advantages, its position in the AI market, and the assumptions built into its current valuation. By the end of this analysis, you’ll have a clearer picture of whether Nvidia deserves a place in your investment portfolio.
Nvidia’s AI dominance explained
Nvidia’s GPUs excel at parallel processing, handling multiple tasks simultaneously. This capability makes them ideal for AI workloads, which require immense computational power. While central processing units (CPUs) from companies like Intel and Apple process data serially, Nvidia’s GPUs can crunch vast amounts of information concurrently.
The company’s early lead in AI hardware is impressive, but Nvidia’s real secret weapon is its proprietary software platform, Cuda. This ecosystem of tools allows AI developers to build models specifically optimized for Nvidia hardware. The result? High switching costs make it challenging for competitors to lure away Nvidia’s customers.
Growth potential and market expectations
Nvidia achieved a staggering 126% revenue growth in fiscal 2024. What’s more, Morningstar analyst Brian Colello anticipates another blockbuster year with 107% revenue growth to $126 billion in fiscal 2025. Looking further ahead, Wall Street anticipates the chipmaker’s top line rising by around 10% per year, on average, out to fiscal 2033, resulting in a stellar 29% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over this period.
Nvidia’s soaring revenue coincides with the rapidly growing AI market at large. McKinsey & Co. estimate that generative AI could unlock up to $17.7 trillion in economic value worldwide by 2033. Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang goes even further, projecting the global AI economy could eventually top $100 trillion within the next 20 years.
Valuation concerns
Nvidia’s growth story is undeniably exciting, but its current valuation raises eyebrows. Wall Street’s average estimate has shares trading around 12 times fiscal 2033 sales. For context, the benchmark S&P 500 has historically traded at under two times trailing sales.
So, to reach bargain territory based on historical precedent, Nvidia’s top line would need to rise at a CAGR of 34% over the next nine years, a figure substantially higher than Wall Street’s consensus forecast.
This scenario assumes Nvidia maintains its leadership in AI-capable GPUs and experiences substantial tailwinds from broader AI development. Neither of these conditions is guaranteed.
Other chip makers already have designs on building their own AI-capable GPUs, and continued advancements in AI may require a series of technological breakthroughs. These factors add significant uncertainty to Nvidia’s long-term value proposition.
The big picture
Nvidia sports an impressive economic moat and stands at the forefront of the AI revolution. The company’s hardware prowess, coupled with its Cuda software ecosystem, creates a formidable competitive advantage.
However, Nvidia’s current valuation prices in ‘near-perfection’ in terms of execution. Moreover, the market appears to be anticipating a “Gutenberg moment” in AI, with Nvidia as the primary driving force behind this next chapter in the tech’s development.
What’s the bottom line? Nvidia screens as a buy if you firmly believe AI is nearing an inflection point from a development standpoint. Otherwise, it may be wiser to gain exposure to the chip maker through a diversified exchange-traded fund.
George Budwell has positions in Apple. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Apple and Nvidia. The Motley Fool recommends Intel and recommends the following options: short August 2024 $35 calls on Intel. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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