Bloomberg News/Landov
The numbers: U.S. stock markets took a big hit in August and business leaders fretted after the U.S. trade war with China intensified, but consumers still have a lot of confidence in the economy.
A closely followed survey of consumer confidence index fell slightly to 135.1 in August from a revised 135.8 in July, the Conference Board said Tuesday. The index remains close to an 19-year high, however.
The post 2008 recession peak is 137.9, set last October.
Economists polled by MarketWatch had predicted the index would fall to 127.8 in the wake of an escalating U.S. trade war with China that slammed stocks earlier in the month and sent interest rates plunging. President Trump announced he would increase tariffs, triggering retaliatory duties by China.
Read: Mounting China trade tensions keep Wall Street on edge, economy under a cloud
What happened: The present situation index, a measure of how consumers view the economy right now, rose to 177.2 from 170.9.
Another index that looks out over the next six months, however, appeared to reflect somewhat more worry. The so-called expectations index slipped to 107 from 112.4.
Still, the relatively unchanged reading in the headline number in August was a big surprise. After all, confidence took a dive in June when President Trump threatened higher tariffs on both China and Mexico.
A similar measure known as consumer sentiment weakened in early August, according to a preliminary estimate.
What might explain the gap between the two surveys of consumers is the difference emphasis of each one.
The consumer confidence index tends to track more closely with the health of the U.S. labor market, which is the strongest in decades. The sentiment survey is more closely tied to changes in the stock market.
Big picture: Some analysts question whether Americans have become acclimated to the constant threats of tariffs by Trump or have simply tuned out during the summer vacation months.
Whatever the case, it’s goods news for the economy. As long as consumers remain confident and continue to spend, the U.S. is likely to expand fast enough to keep the economy out of recession. Consumer spending accounts for almost 70% of U.S. economic activity.
What they are saying?: “While other parts of the economy may show some weakening, consumers have remained confident and willing to spend,” said Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the board. “However, if the recent escalation in trade and tariff tensions persists, it could potentially dampen consumers’ optimism regarding the short-term economic outlook.”
Market reaction: The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.01% and S&P 500 SPX, +0.03% rose in Tuesday trades. The 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y, -3.35% slipped to 1.52%.
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