Expect Nvidia’s impact on the market to decrease: Strategist
September 10, 2024
The first week of September trading took a toll on Nvidia (NVDA) shares, which is currently trying to recover losses, and weighing on the major averages (^DJI, ^GSPC, ^IXIC) as the chip giant struggles to live up to its sky-high expectations. Citigroup head of US equity strategy Scott Chronert joins Morning Brief to discuss Nvidia's outlook and how investors can prepare for a pullback. Chronert notes that while Nvidia is expected to see 40% earnings growth in 2025, its impact on the tech-heavy indexes, particularly the S&P 500, will start to decrease. "What we're looking at is the pattern over the past 15 months, going back to May of '23, when they first gave us a significant upside surprise and guidance raise. What's happened since then is that they've continued to raise guidance with each quarter, but that stair-step function is decelerating," he explains. As Nvidia's guidance lifts continue to decelerate, Chronert argues, "what this tells us is that it's still a really important stock for index direction. At 6% plus of the index, it's going to be. But in terms of the more significant upside that it's contributed to the S&P, we think that certainly lessens from here." He adds that when Big Tech and the Magnificent Seven dipped to about in mid-July, he encouraged investors to "play 'growth' as defensive around concerns of economic weakening." He calls this strategy "a pretty good playbook" as his year-end target for the S&P 500 sits at 5,600. He notes that if the index falls closer to 5,200, "your risk reward begins to get much more attractive going into the year-end." For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Morning Brief. This post was written by Melanie Riehl Read More...
The first week of September trading took a toll on Nvidia (NVDA) shares, which is currently trying to recover losses, and weighing on the major averages (^DJI, ^GSPC, ^IXIC) as the chip giant struggles to live up to its sky-high expectations.
Citigroup head of US equity strategy Scott Chronert joins Morning Brief to discuss Nvidia’s outlook and how investors can prepare for a pullback.
Chronert notes that while Nvidia is expected to see 40% earnings growth in 2025, its impact on the tech-heavy indexes, particularly the S&P 500, will start to decrease. “What we’re looking at is the pattern over the past 15 months, going back to May of ’23, when they first gave us a significant upside surprise and guidance raise. What’s happened since then is that they’ve continued to raise guidance with each quarter, but that stair-step function is decelerating,” he explains.
As Nvidia’s guidance lifts continue to decelerate, Chronert argues, “what this tells us is that it’s still a really important stock for index direction. At 6% plus of the index, it’s going to be. But in terms of the more significant upside that it’s contributed to the S&P, we think that certainly lessens from here.”
He adds that when Big Tech and the Magnificent Seven dipped to about in mid-July, he encouraged investors to “play ‘growth’ as defensive around concerns of economic weakening.” He calls this strategy “a pretty good playbook” as his year-end target for the S&P 500 sits at 5,600. He notes that if the index falls closer to 5,200, “your risk reward begins to get much more attractive going into the year-end.”
For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Morning Brief.
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