Oil futures traded near unchanged Friday, with analysts pointing to renewed jitters over the outlook for demand after three major forecasters — the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, the International Energy Agency and the U.S. Energy Information Administration— this week offered downbeat outlooks.
West Texas Intermediate crude for September delivery CL.1, -0.30% CLU20, -0.30% on the New York Mercantile Exchange was unchanged at $42.24 a barrel, while the global benchmark, October Brent crude BRNV20, -0.33% was down 2 cents at $44.94 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.
All three organizations indicated oil demand in the fourth quarter of 2021 will remain below fourth quarter 2019 levels, said Jason Gammel, analyst at Jefferies, in a note. 2021 demand relative to 2019 is now forecast at -2.9 million barrels a day, or mbd, by IEA, -2.1 mbd by OPEC and -1.1 mbd by EIA, he noted, while all three significantly cut their U.S. production forecasts for the second quarter, while looking for increases in the third and fourth quarters.
Meanwhile, OPEC and its allies in August relaxed curbs on output.
Uncertainty over future demand, “coupled with rising production, will make it challenging to restore the balance on the oil market,” said Eugen Weinberg, analyst at Commerzbank.
In other energy trading, September gasoline RBU20, +0.89% rose 1.2% to $1.2495 a gallon, while September heating oil HOU20, +0.08% was up 0.3% at $1.2424 a gallon.
September natural-gas futures NGU20, +1.00% were up 0.9% at $2.201 per million British thermal units.
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