Donald Trump loves telling us all about how fantastic the stock market has done under his leadership. And why wouldn’t he? Despite a few hiccups, it’s been a great run, no doubt (for those invested in equities, anyway).
But, in a stat that surely won’t sit well with the current president, Obama’s market fared better than Trump’s has over the same number of trading days, according to our chart of the day from the Calculated Risk blog’s Bill McBride:
McBride, for his part, says he doesn’t believe the market is a great measure of policy performance, but he acknowledges that some, including Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, do. So he updates this chart on occasion for them.
“My view is there are many measures of success — and that the economy needs to work well for a majority of the people — not just stock investors,” McBride explained in a “just for fun” blog post over the weekend.
He also pointed out that Obama’s performance was dinged up in his third year as president, which means that, should the Fed’s rate-cutting approach boost the market, as many expect, we can expect more tweets like these:
In the meantime, stocks are in a holding pattern…
The market
The Dow Jones Industrial Average YMU19, -0.09% S&P 500 ESU19, +0.12% and Nasdaq Composite NQU19, +0.64% are off to a mixed start to the week. Gold GCQ19, +0.09% is down, while oil US:CLN19 US:CLN19 is higher as Mideast tensions keep investors on their toes, and the dollar DXY, +0.05% is minimally up. Europe stocks SXXP, +0.01% edged higher, while Asia markets ADOW, -0.28% ended mostly lower.
Read: Hong Kong police launch tear gas against protesters; masked goons attack subway riders
The buzz
Earnings are piling up this week in a big way, with a third of the Dow’s DJIA, -0.13% 30 components on the schedule. A boatload of S&P SPX, +0.08% companies will also report, making for one of the busiest earning stretches this season.
One of those notable companies is Amazon AMZN, -0.09% , which is coming off its Prime Day promotion and will report second-quarter earnings after the closing bell on Thursday. JPMorgan JPM, +0.18% analysts think it’s time to shift focus to revenue for the e-commere giant after a string of quarters with blockbuster profit. Keep an eye out for Tesla TSLA, -0.27% and Twitter TWTR, +0.80% , too.
Equifax EFX, +0.55% will pay potentially up to $700 million, in a settlement with the Federal Trade Commission, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and 50 U.S. states and territories over a 2017 hack that exposed information of over 100 million people.
The call
Joachim Fels, global economic advisor at Pimco, told CNBC on Monday that the U.S. ”has the upper hand” in this “cold currency war.”
In other words, he believes the U.S. dollar is more likely to strengthen than weaken from here. The cold war refers to a conflict fought through interest rates, quantitative easing and yield curve control. “The Fed obviously has more room to cut interest rates than the (European Central Bank) or the Bank of Japan,” he told CNBC.
As for the next move on the rate-cut front, Fels says there’s a 50-50 chance that the Fed slashes rates by 50 basis points this month and leaves the door open to perhaps another cut by year end.
The quote
“There’s no question that he is stoking racial divisions” — Fox News host Chris Wallace — yes, Fox News — grilling Stephen Miller over President Trump’s recent controversial antics. Watch the full interview.
The tweet
The economy
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for June hits at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, and that’s pretty much the extent of the data on Monday’s light docket. On Tuesday, the National Association of Realtors turns in existing home sales, with expectations running flat from last month. New home sales will be reported on Wednesday.
The stat
Bloomberg
4.9% — That’s how much Bridgewater Associates’ flagship Pure Alpha fund lost in the first half of this year, one of its worst-ever performances, according to the Financial Times. By comparison, the FTSE All-World equity index was up 15% through the end of June. The average macro hedge fund gained 5.2% in the period.
Random reads
They’re eating all the mangoes in Caracas.
Golf courses are shutting down all over. What’s a homeowner to do?
Shane Lowry wasn’t the only winner at the Open over the weekend — meet the barber who cut Jordan Spieth’s hair and got his biggest tip ever.
Back in the States, “Sunday has been canceled,” the NYPD jokingly tweeted. But really, it should have been. It was too damn hot.
How Trump could still win, even if he loses by 5 million votes.
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