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Nvidia is nearing a multibillion-dollar investment in OpenAI, expected to be its largest to date.
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The move comes as both companies reaffirm their partnership after earlier tensions and OpenAI exploring other chip suppliers.
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The talks unfold while U.S. regulations affecting AI chip exports to China continue to evolve.
Nvidia (NasdaqGS:NVDA) is considering this investment at a time when its shares trade around $174.19, with a 1-year return of 39.6%. The stock has seen a 9.0% decline over the past week and a 7.4% decline over the past month, while the 5-year return is very large. That mix of recent pullback and longer-term strength provides context for how meaningful a multibillion-dollar OpenAI stake could be for investors following the AI theme.
For you, the key question is how a deeper tie with OpenAI might affect Nvidia’s role in global AI infrastructure and demand for its hardware. The company is also forming new alliances in AI infrastructure and industrial digital twins, so this potential deal sits within a broader effort to work with major players across the AI ecosystem while responding to regulatory pressures.
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Why NVIDIA could be great value
Nvidia’s potential multibillion dollar stake in OpenAI sits alongside a flurry of AI alliances, from industrial digital twins with Dassault Systèmes to grid edge data centers with EPRI and Prologis. For you as an investor, the signal is that Nvidia is trying to stay embedded at every layer of AI infrastructure, not only by selling GPUs but by co-designing how factories, utilities and software platforms actually run AI workloads, while regulators in the U.S. still shape what it can ship into China.
These OpenAI talks line up with the existing Simply Wall St narratives that already flag both Nvidia’s central role in AI hardware and the pressures from customers like Microsoft, Amazon and Google building their own chips. Recent partnerships in robotics, healthcare and industrial twins show management pushing to broaden demand sources, which sits neatly against those narratives that question how sustainable any one client or use case will be.
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⚠️ Concentration risk if a large OpenAI cheque and continued reliance on hyperscalers make future earnings more exposed to a small set of counterparties.
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⚠️ Policy and execution risk from evolving U.S. export rules on H200 chips to China and from any OpenAI deal terms that limit Nvidia’s flexibility elsewhere.
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🎁 Increased ecosystem depth as partnerships with OpenAI, CoreWeave, Dassault Systèmes and others reinforce Nvidia’s position at the center of AI infrastructure build outs.
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🎁 Signaling effect to the market that Nvidia is willing to commit capital alongside its hardware, which some investors may see as alignment with long term AI demand.
From here, it is worth watching how any final OpenAI investment is structured, how often Nvidia takes equity stakes alongside hardware deals, and what management says on upcoming calls about export licensing and customer chip roadmaps from AMD and large cloud providers. If you want to see how other investors are framing these moving parts, check the community narratives on Nvidia’s dedicated page and compare this news with the longer term thesis already set out there.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include NVDA.
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