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On September 10, 2025, American Express and UPS announced an expanded agreement giving small and medium-sized businesses exclusive shipping discounts and service offers ahead of the holiday season, valid through February 2026, via the Amex Business Savings Suite.
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This partnership highlights UPS’s focus on growing its small business segment, which is considered more profitable per package compared to large enterprise clients.
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We’ll examine how targeting small business shipping volume with new Amex offers may reshape UPS’s overall investment narrative.
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Owning United Parcel Service stock is about believing in its ability to boost profitability by shifting focus from lower-margin enterprise customers like Amazon to more lucrative small and medium-sized businesses. The new American Express shipping partnership is a step in this direction and may help support near-term volume and pricing ahead of the holidays, but the largest risk remains tariff changes and softer global demand, which could offset these gains if conditions worsen.
Of the recent announcements, UPS’s decision to reduce Amazon package volume by over 50% by mid-2026 stands out, given its impact on both risk and catalyst narratives. This move directly connects to efforts to build healthier margins through SMB partnerships such as the latest Amex deal, which provides a meaningful test of UPS’s ability to replace lost large-client business with higher-margin alternatives.
However, with tariffs and shifting global supply chains still in flux, investors should be aware that…
Read the full narrative on United Parcel Service (it’s free!)
United Parcel Service’s narrative projects $94.5 billion in revenue and $7.1 billion in earnings by 2028. This requires 1.5% yearly revenue growth and a $1.4 billion increase in earnings from $5.7 billion currently.
Uncover how United Parcel Service’s forecasts yield a $104.40 fair value, a 24% upside to its current price.
While the baseline centers on margin improvement from targeting small businesses, the most optimistic analysts expected UPS revenue to reach US$96.7 billion and earnings of US$8 billion by 2028, assuming automation and digital investments unlock global efficiency. Your view may differ, especially as fresh alliances and tariff headwinds could reshape expectations going forward.
Explore 24 other fair value estimates on United Parcel Service – why the stock might be worth as much as 93% more than the current price!
Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes – extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include UPS.
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