Gear up for a major week for retail stocks.
Some of the big-ticket names in retail such as Home Depot, Macy’s and TJ Maxx parent TJX are all gearing up for earnings. The group heads into the busy stretch with a lot to prove — nearly half the stocks in the XRT retail ETF are in a bear market after falling at least 20% from 52-week highs.
However, two names caught the attention of Craig Johnson, chief market technician of Piper Sandler. The first company, Best Buy, broke out after the company hiked its earnings forecast in November, he says.
“You could probably see an implied move of around 7%, but ultimately I could see a measured objective on this stock that can push this stock materially higher from where it is,” Johnson said on CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Friday.
The second pick for Johnson is Home Depot. The company hit a new record for the second day in a row on Friday.
“If you see a move to the upper end of that channel, that can put this stock up toward about $160, maybe $165 — an implied move about 3% around the earnings announcement,” said Johnson.
Steve Chiavarone, equity strategist at Federated Hermes, said the support for retail will continue to rely on a strong consumer — economic data, he says, indicates the consumer remains healthy.
“You have unemployment at a 50-year low, you’ve got wages that are growing somewhere north of 3% or certainly around there. Interest rates are low … [and] you have oil prices that are benign,” Chiavarone said during the same segment.
Better-than-expected earnings will rely on a couple of factors, including product demand, convenience and shopping experience. In an email to “Trading Nation,” he added that “commoditized products, stale distribution, and a lack of perceived value” will continue to lose share.
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