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Now that every major candidate appears to have entered the 2020 Democratic primary, it’s a good time to look at the likelihood each contender has to win the party’s nomination according to bookmakers. Below are the odds each candidate had on April 1, 2019, along with the most current odds, according to the oddsmakers at Bovada.
For those unaccustomed to how gambling futures work, the number next to each candidate’s name indicates how much money a bettor would win if he/she wagered $100. For example, according to the odds at Bovada, one of the most popular online gambling sites for U.S. players, a winning $100 bet on Kamala Harris today would net a $500 profit (plus your original $100 back). You can also plug the odds into a probability calculator for a more conventional percentage breakdown.
It’s important to note that these odds are fluid and can change based on a variety of factors. While factors like polling are important, there is also an element of forecasting included. Because actual voting is so far away, things like fundraising and name recognition may also play a role. Here are the notable changes in the odds over the past month.
Biggest Risers
Pete Buttigieg: +1400 to +450
The man who enjoys being called “Mayor Pete” is perhaps the biggest riser in the Democratic party this primary season. The mayor of South Bend, Indiana, has gotten big jumps in Google searches of his name and polling since he announced. Recent polling puts him anywhere from 4% to 14%, while some March polls had him closer to 1%. The “Buttigieg bump” has positioned the mayor as a serious contender for the presidency, and would become the first gay American to be elected as commander-in-chief. While Buttigieg would make history in that way, he is actually one of the few 2020 candidates with a military background as he has served as a naval intelligence officer in the Navy Reserve.
Joe Biden: +400 to +275
The former vice president was rumored to be running for months before finally getting into the race last Thursday. Biden’s initial announcement didn’t shift the odds much, per Bovada, but subsequent polls by CNN and Morning Consult have fueled a pretty significant shift in his odds. While the topline change of +400 to +275 might not seem like much, the shift in implied probability is about 7%, a big move in a field of double-digit candidates.
Biggest Fallers
Beto O’Rourke: +450 to +1200
O’Rourke’s odds have taken a tumble in April. One potential reason is the rise of Pete Buttigieg, who is also a young-ish white male candidate. O’Rourke and Buttigieg’s odds have basically flipped in the last month, and it’s worth monitoring to see if the two cannibalize each other’s votes. While O’Rourke is not polling like a top contender, he is fundraising like one. O’Rourke’s presidential campaign said it raised $6.1 million in its first 24 hours; only Joe Biden’s campaign raised more.
Amy Klobuchar: +1000 to +3300
The Minnesota senator has struggled to get media attention lately. Klobuchar likely wasn’t happy when Joe Biden declared his candidacy because she claims to be more moderate than others running in the primary, a lane Biden may veer into. It’s a lane bigger than some may think as over half of the Democratic primary voters in 2016 identified as either moderate or conservative.
Kirsten Gillibrand: +2000 to +6600
From a polling perspective, Gillibrand’s candidacy never got off the ground. She has hovered around 1% most of the race. As of today, Gillibrand still qualifies for the first two primary debates — according to the Democratic National Committee’s current debate requirements — but Gillibrand is in some danger of being pushed out of the debates if more candidates decide to run. The odds appear to have caught up to the polls.
Other Movers
Andrew Yang: +3000 to +900 to +1400
Yang has become notorious on politics Twitter for having a policy opinion on everything. Yang’s odds skyrocketed from +3000 in early March, to +900 on April 1st, before settling in at +1400. His recent odds uptick may be attributed to Yang’s cult-like internet following called the Yang Gang. The 44-year-old entrepreneur has hosted a town hall event on CNN, and as of today qualified for the first two primary debates.
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