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France Offers Another Glimmer of Hope on Covid

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- When Nobel Prize-winning economists Esther Duflo and Abhijit Banerjee urged France’s Emmanuel Macron in September to impose a tough three-week circuit-breaker lockdown to halt the spread of Covid-19 in time for Christmas, they were politely ignored. Macron’s health minister, Olivier Veran, dismissed such planning as “pie in the sky” and said lockdowns were to be avoided.Six weeks later, the economists look prescient. Covid’s second wave has been brutal in France with daily deaths now averaging around 500 versus 70 at end-September. The number of patients in hospitals is above where it was at the peak of the first wave, and intensive-care occupancy isn’t far off. France may not be alone in this struggle, but it has the highest total caseload in Europe and the third-highest death toll behind the U.K. and Italy (unadjusted for population). On Oct. 30, the country began a national lockdown.There’s one crucial piece of good news about the French response, however. Macron’s softer, less draconian approach to stay-at-home curbs — notably by resisting calls, including by Duflo and Banerjee, to shut schools — looks like it’s possibly starting to pay off.The latest official data suggest France’s daily case curve has been bending downward in recent days, with the virus’s all-important reproduction rate now estimated at 0.93. That means an infected person will, on average, spread it to less than one person. While still a glimmer rather than a full ray of light, there are also signs that the pace of hospital admissions is slowing, even if it has yet to peak. That’s despite the fact that schools, public services, construction sites and some workplaces have been kept open this time around.These early hopeful signs are backed up by mobility data from Google, which shows the French are taking lockdown seriously. Retail and leisure traffic is down more than 50% from the pre-virus baseline, and the impact on movement in transit stations isn’t far behind. That’s reassuring considering the fatigue and economic destruction inflicted by the first lockdown. The new “soft” approach still forces people to fill out forms to leave home and respect a 1-kilometer limit when out for exercise, but it’s generally easier to bear.A closer look at mobility in the Paris region as tracked by Facebook is even more encouraging. It suggests people actually began to restrict their movement when a 9 p.m. curfew was introduced in mid-October, well before the second lockdown began. That may be contributing to the positive signals in the virus data. Still, France was slow to take action compared with Wales or Catalonia, meaning it’s far too early to think about lifting these restrictions. Prime Minister Jean Castex said as much on Thursday, telling the press that non-essential businesses might be allowed to reopen on Dec. 1 at the earliest.For all the upbeat signals, the next few weeks will be rough going. Hospitals have been overwhelmed and non-Covid operations are being delayed. Unemployment rose to 9% in the third quarter, and job postings have yet to fully recover from the first lockdown, according to Bloomberg Economics. Only about one-third of French people have faith the Macron administration can handle the pandemic effectively. That’s not reassuring given the population is being encouraged to “do its...

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Raymond James: These 3 Stocks Are Poised to Surge by Over 80%

We’re a little over one week past the Presidential election, and the market reaction shows that that investors are pleased. While the election margins were razor thin, the will of the voters came through: they rejected Donald Trump, and his brash, in-your-face style, but they also rejected the Democratic Party on policy; the Dems lost seats in the House, will likely not take control of the Senate, and also lost ground at the State level. America’s voters seem to be tired of drama, whether it comes from Donald Trump or the Democrats’ push to the political left. They want a government that will simply plod straight along.And it looks like they will get just that. With power split in the White House and the Chambers of Congress, we’re about to be reminded of a feature of the checks and balance system: that gridlock is a result of a closely divided electorate. Change won’t happen unless one side or the other gets a large majority, or a small majority over several terms. Neither of those is in the cards for now.The immediate result is a multi-day market rally. The implication is clear – the markets sentiment has calmed since the election, and investors look forward to government settling into a more normal mode in the coming months.To this end, investors are sure to find solid options in the near term. Writing from Raymond James, analyst Ric Prentiss has recently published three reviews on mid-cap stocks, pointing out why, in his view, they offer high return potential with more settled markets in the coming year. The stocks all fit a profile: they are at the lower end of the mid-cap range, with market valuations between $2 billion and $3 billion; they inhabit the telecom ecosystem, and they all have, according to Raymond James, over 80% upside potential. We ran the the three through TipRanks database to see what other Wall Street’s analysts have to say about them.Telephone & Data Systems (TDS)First on our list, Telephone & Data Systems, is a Chicago-based company providing a range of telecom services to over 6 million customers. The company offers broadband over cable and wireline, wireless products and services, and TV and voice services. TDS operates the country’s fifth-largest cellular carrier.TDS has dramatically outperformed expectations in 2020, despite the ongoing coronavirus. Revenues, at $1.32 billion, are about level with the pre-corona report ($1.34 billion in Q4 2019), while earnings jumped in 1Q20 and have remained high ever since. The Q3 earnings, at 66 cents, beat the forecast by 153%. It was an impressive performance, made more so by the 266% year-over-year growth.On another bright note for investors, TDS has maintained its dividend payment through the year. The 17-cent per common share payout annualizes to 68 cents, and offers a yield of 3.6%, nearly double the average yield found among S&P-listed companies.TDS has shown strong business through the year, but its weak point has been in the fiber and wireline niche. However, Raymond James’ Ric Prentiss looks at the half-full glass, noting: “WFH policies have continued to result in some slower approvals from municipalities and electrical utilities associated with building aerial fiber. And in some cases, TDS is pivoting to alternatives with better economics. Still, TDS Telecom grew fiber service addresses 5% y/y and is seeing better-than-expected take rates around 30-40%, depending on the market. Moreover, 34% of Wireline customers are now served by fiber, compared to 29% a year ago, and TDS expects acceleration throughout the rest of 2020.”Prentiss rates TDS as a Strong Buy, and increased his price target by 6% to $34. At that level, he sees an 81% upside for the stock over the next months. (To watch Prentiss’s track record, click here)This stock also holds a Strong Buy rating from the analyst consensus, based on 3 unanimous Buy reviews set in recent weeks. Shares are priced at $18.73 and the average target of $34.83 suggests a one-year upside of 85.5%. (See TDS stock analysis on TipRanks)ViaSat, Inc. (VSAT)Next up, ViaSat, is a high-speed satellite broadband provider. The California company serves commercial and defense markets, building on the broad need, across industries, for secure communications.Social lockdown measures took a toll on the company’s business, especially the shutdowns of airlines. Commercial air traffic relies heavily on satellite communications, and that slowdown is still weighing on ViaSat.The headwinds are partially offset by a backlog in services ordered. Revenues have remained stable over the past four quarters, between $530 million and $588 million, with the $554 million recorded in Q3 being solidly in the middle of that range. Earnings have bounced back into positive territory after turning negative in Q2. The third quarter EPS was only 3 cents, but that was a dramatic sequential improvement from the previous 20-cent net loss.In his look at VSAT, Prentiss notes, “Government Systems and Commercial Networks remain strong, while the IFC business continues to navigate significant headwinds related to COVID-19… On the positive side, social distancing and Safer-At-Home policies are driving more residential broadband data usage and pushing ARPUs higher…”Prentiss rates VSAT an Outperform (i.e. Buy) while his $63 price target suggests an 87% upside potential.Overall, ViaSat gets a Moderate Buy rating from the analyst consensus, based on 3 reviews that include 2 Buys and 1 Hold. The shares have an average price target of $53.33, which implies a 12-month upside of 59% from the trading price of $33.39. (See VSAT stock analysis on TipRanks)EchoStar Corporation (SATS)Last but not least is EchoStar, another satellite operator. This company controls a constellation of communications satellites, offering satcom capabilities to the media and private enterprises, as well as both civilian and military US government agencies. In addition, EchoStar provides satellite broadband in 100 countries around the world.At the top line, EchoStar’s revenues have held steady for the past three quarters, coming in at $465 million, $459 million, and $473 million. And while earnings were negative in Q1 and Q2, the Q3 results showed a net profit of 26 cents per share.The sequential Q3 improvements at the top and bottom lines come along with increases in the EchoStar’s subscriber base, to more than 1.54 million in total. The company also boasts a strong balance sheet, having more than $2.5 billion in cash on hand and no net debt.Covering SATS, Ric Prentiss is upbeat about near- and mid-term prospects. He writes, “SATS [has] strategic optionality in a time when others, especially higher levered satellite companies, are cash starved facing significant maturities or capex programs… we think a number of organic and inorganic growth options are being considered, including the future deployment of SBand spectrum after lining up anchor tenant(s). Lastly, we believe EchoStar’s recently announced collaboration with Inmarsat to provide capacity for In-Flight Connectivity should provide over time high margin cash flows, and we note the deal is not exclusive.”These comments back another Strong Buy rating, and Prentiss’s $57 target price indicates room for 123% growth in the next year. In terms of other analyst activity, it has been relatively quiet. 1 Buy and 1 Hold ratings assigned in the last three months add up to a ‘Moderate Buy’ analyst consensus. In addition, the $43.50 average price target puts the upside potential at ~74%. (See SATS stock analysis on TipRanks)To find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analysts. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.

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