With more than a month to go before the autumnal equinox, and 100 million Americans seeing temperatures sizzle above 100 degrees this week … Dunkin’ Donuts dropped its fall menu last Wednesday. It features a cinnamon sugar pumpkin signature latte, and an apple cider doughnut.
And Starbucks SBUX, +1.90% — credited with birthing the pumpkin spice craze ever since people began going out of their gourds over its signature latte in 2003 — is hot on Dunkin’s DNKN, +1.67% heels. The Seattle coffee giant will begin serving its PSL on Tuesday, Aug. 27 — which is the earliest that it has ever been officially released (not counting exclusive early access for rewards members in years past, which has been as early as Aug. 26.) It’s also added a new Pumpkin Cream Cold Brew to the menu; its first new pumpkin drink in 16 years.
Yet once upon a time, Starbucks served the pumpkin spice latte when pumpkins were actually in season. The first PSLs were poured on Oct. 10, 2003 — just shy of Halloween, and almost a month after the official first day of fall. (For what it’s worth, the first day of fall is Sept. 23 this year.)
The pumpkin spice latte was so unlike any other coffee drinks at that time, that people couldn’t get enough. So the PSL has blown up to become Starbucks’ most popular seasonal drink of all time, with more than 200 million sold in its first decade on the menu. And as competitors like Dunkin’ and McDonald’s MCD, +1.05% have tried to capture a piece of that sweet, sweet action, not only has a $500 million pumpkin spice industry boomed, but also the sweater season flavors have started hitting shelves while it’s still the dog days of summer.
This chart shows just how early pumpkin spice season has crept up. Dunkin’ in particular has been serving pumpkin drinks earlier year over year, from Sept. 6 back in 2011 to Aug. 21 this year — and noticeably ahead of Starbucks each year, at least since 2014, perhaps to try to steal some of that PSL thunder. Starbucks has generally released the PSL during the first week of September — but it moved up its fall menu to Aug. 28 last year, and will be serving the drinks a day earlier this year.
While Dunkin’ didn’t respond to a MarketWatch request for comment by presstime, a Starbucks spokesperson said that the PSL’s recent August debuts have been to satisfy customer demand.
“People love and want pumpkin spice lattes, and that flavor, all year round,” he said, highlighting the 30,000 members of the Leaf Rakers Society, a closed Facebook FB, +1.47% group that describes itself as “a safe place” for people to share their love pumpkins, scarfs — and pumpkin spice lattes, of course — all year long. Starbucks is a page administrator.
Related: Starbucks adds even more pumpkin to the menu with Pumpkin Cream Cold Brew
“Starbucks is tapping into that customer desire for that flavor,” the Starbucks rep said. “And for those people waiting for fall, who want the flavor sooner, Starbucks is bringing back the PSL one day earlier. Starbucks is really about customers first, and making sure they get the food and drinks they want.”
And Genevieve Aronson, vice president for communications at Nielsen, agreed that shoppers are also fueling the August onset of pumpkin spice everywhere else. “While the early arrival of all things pumpkin spice is a topic of social media debate, early-season dollar sales of pumpkin spice products continues to deliver,” she told MarketWatch. “For many, widening the sales window for pumpkin spice products could be seen as a win-win: enabling companies to cater to the enduring consumer demand for pumpkin spice, while building out the opportunity to strengthen seasonal sales.”
Related: Even your Starbucks and Dunkin’ pumpkin spice lattes come with a shot of sexism
Indeed, the food industry analysts at Nielsen have found that overall pumpkin spice spending started climbing a week earlier last year than it did in 2017: Sales were $7.3 million for the week of Aug. 25, 2018, compared with $6.3 million that same week the year before. And pumpkin spice sales passed the $10 million mark on Sept. 1 last year, but were still only at $8.7 million during that same week in 2017.
“The skillful formulation of pumpkin spice products by Starbucks and Dunkin’ — the veritable leaders of PS products — is allowing for the earlier introduction of PS products without requiring association with fall weather or cold weather holidays,” food scientist and researcher Kantha Shelke, a lecturer at Johns Hopkins University, told MarketWatch. She said that people have grown to love the taste so much, that pumpkin spice has become a flavor that they order “when they like, rather than one they associate only with cool weather and the holidays.”
What’s more, back-to-school season in late August and early September gets many adults nostalgic and excited for autumn traditions, and the scents and flavors that bring those memories back. And retailers are only happy to entice consumers with every version of pumpkin spice product under the sun, from coffee to deodorant to Spam. (Yes, there is pumpkin spice Spam.)
Plus, the analysts at the NPD Group find that repeated limited time offers — like when restaurants bring back seasonal favorites such as pumpkin spice lattes or McDonald’s St. Patrick’s Day-themed shamrock shakes — tap into a base of loyal buyers. “Limited time offers continue to be an integral element of a restaurant chain’s and food service manufacturer’s marketing mix,” said David Portalatin, NPD food industry adviser and author of “Eating Patterns in America” in a statement. “A well-executed LTO can boost sales and serve as a competitive edge for restaurant operators and help food service manufacturers test new products and concepts.” Indeed, his research found that almost one in four (24%) people who bought a PSL at Starbucks last year had also purchased one the year before.
But Aronson at Nielsen also warned that there is “a faint tinge of fatigue in the air,” so companies shouldn’t push pumpkin spice release dates much earlier than this. “Brands do run the risk of tarnishing the equity that the pumpkin spice flavor has built around the fall season,” she added. “PSL has grown synonymous with all things fall — like warm cozy sweaters and crunching leaves — not with sand, sunscreen and the last days of summer fun.”
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