U.S. stocks traded mostly lower Wednesday as traders eyed the difficult choice facing the Federal Reserve of whether to prioritize fighting inflation or banking sector stability.
How are stock indexes trading
- The S&P 500 SPX, +0.06% lost 0.5 points, or less than 0.1% to around 4,002
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.09% went down 50 points, or 0.2% to 32,511
- The Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.23% gained 11 points, or 0.1% to 11,871
On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 316 points, or 0.98%, to 32561, the S&P 500 increased 51 points, or 1.3%, to 4003, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 185 points, or 1.58%, to 11860.
What’s driving markets
Attention is focused on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, due at 2 p.m. Eastern. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference half an hour later.
Futures markets are pricing in an 89% probability of a 25 basis point hike in the fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%.
However, that high level of conviction belies the intense uncertainty over monetary policy in recent weeks as investors have tried to gauge how the central bank will navigate the need to maintain the battle against inflation, which is still running at three times its 2% target, with a desire not to pile further interest rate pressure on a fragile banking sector.
See: Fed’s forecasts seen diverging from market over future path of interest rates
“There’ll be plenty of focus on whether the Fed hikes today, but just as important will be how they’re looking at the current turmoil and whether they still expect any more rate hikes after today,” said Henry Allen, strategist at Deutsche Bank.
“Our U.S. economists think that the [European Central Bank’s] decision last week offers a relevant blueprint for the Fed: raise rates in line with expectations, drop forward guidance, but signal a continued tightening bias,” Allen added.
The Fed will be looking to gather information from the market reaction, especially on the inflation expectations front, as Powell speaks at the press conference, said Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company.
“If there is a commentary about potentially pausing [rate hikes] and seeing what happens, what happens to those inflation expectations, do they rise? If they did, I think the Fed would be worried. If they don’t, I think they’ll take some comfort that the market is kind of on the same page,” said Schutte.
The S&P 500 index closed on Tuesday above the level seen before the banking crisis began with news of troubles at Silicon Valley Bank just two weeks ago. The benchmark index is again back in the middle of its four-month trading range between 3,800 to 4,200.
Investors have welcomed easing tensions in the financial sector while hoping the subsequently tighter credit conditions will help slow the economy and thereby bring forward the time when the Fed can start cutting borrowing costs again.
Still, the difficulty of the challenge facing central banks was highlighted by inflation data in the U.K. which showed price rises accelerating again and remaining in double digits. The Bank of England will deliver its rate decision Thursday.
“As inflation remains well above the BoE target, there’s now a stronger case for the BoE to press ahead with a rate hike, even in a period of greater financial market uncertainty,” said Richard Flax, chief investment officer at Moneyfarm.
“It will be interesting to see how the BoE and the Fed consider the dynamics between fighting inflation and managing financial stability. The ECB has already indicated that it sees no contradiction between those two goals,” Flax added.
Companies in focus
- GameStop Corp. GME, +42.32% shares rallied almost 40% Wednesday, after the specialty retailer reported a surprise quarterly profit and sales that were above Wall Street expectations.
- Athletic-gear giant Nike Inc. NKE, -1.20% shares slipped 1.3% Wednesday after the company said it was benefiting from the star power of both younger and older NBA athletes and enthusiasm in its running-shoe segment, but gross margins for its full-year would land at the low end of expectations.
- Shares of 89bio Inc. ETNB, +33.03% soared close to 30% Wednesday after the company said its experimental treatment for nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) led to NASH resolution compared to placebo in a Phase 2b clinical trial.
- Shares of First Republic Bank FRC, -2.16% gained 0.6% Wednesday after news that the troubled bank reportedly has hired advisers to review its options and manage the crisis.
- Shares of Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc. OLLI, +8.36% jumped 8% Wednesday after the retailer of closeout merchandise and excess inventory reported better-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter results and provided an upbeat outlook.
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