The U.K. Supreme Court on Tuesday is scheduled to release its ruling on whether Prime Minister Boris Johnson lawfully prorogued Parliament.
The decision, due at 10:30 a.m. local time (5:30 a.m. Eastern), could potentially result in the immediate recall of Parliament, which at the moment is shut down until Oct. 14, with a so-called hard Brexit looming on Oct. 31 in the absence of further action.
It’s one of many permutations that could arise from the ruling. The Supreme Court could potentially rule against Johnson and compel Parliament to return. Still, the Johnson administration could immediately seek a new, shorter prorogation of Parliament.
The Supreme Court could also rule for Johnson, giving its blessing to his suspension of Parliament.
“If prorogation is ruled unlawful, Parliament would likely return. This would likely make it difficult for Mr. Johnson to continue on his current negotiating strategy, especially given recent comments by the EU, expediting moves towards an extension and a general election,” said analysts at Citi in a note to clients.
Election polls place the Johnson-led Conservatives with a high single-digit lead ahead of the Jeremy Corbyn-led Labour.
Analysts at J.P. Morgan said Johnson could resign if a ruling went against him, which it deemed would be “modestly GBP-positive.”
The British pound GBPUSD, -0.4088% has been turbulent since Johnson became prime minister in late July, but of late has held the $1.24 level. Generally, the U.K. currency moves higher when traders assess a diminished chance of a no-deal Brexit.
The betting site Betfair on Monday afternoon implied a 25% chance of a no-deal Brexit in 2019.
The yield on the 10-year U.K. government bond TMBMKGB-10Y, -12.70% , or gilt, meanwhile has dropped this month from a high of 0.76% to 0.54% on Monday.
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